Long Term Load Forecast and Master Plan

Long term load forecasting is a prerequisite to efficient utility planning. Long term planning of guides a utility towards an economical and orderly expansion of the T&D system while assuring adequate and efficient service levels over the depreciative life of the facilities.

The factors that influence load growth vary widely amongst utilities. A range of factors, not limiting to, demographic changes, economic growth, industrialization rate, ground water, trade & commerce shifts, technological shifts influence load changes. The factors that influence developing countries are very different from that of advanced/developed countries.

GECE has extensive experience in conducting long term load forecast studies for power utilities and the portfolio of services includes

• Integrated system forecasts for utilities and all of their member systems
• Top-down models
• Residential consumer forecasts
• Econometric forecasting of class energy sales and consumers
• End-use forecasting for all categories of customer
• Integrated end-use and econometric forecasts
• Forecast program work plans
• Low-cost provision of regional economic and demographic data digests
• Tracking analyses to assess historic forecast performance and recommend changes
• Monthly, seasonal, and annual peak demand forecasts
• Load shape forecasting
• Short-term monthly forecasts for budgeting
• Weather normalization to support rate studies
• Small-area forecasts to support distribution system planning
• Scenario analysis
• Probabilistic forecasts to support risk measurement and management programs

Long term master plan for T&D systems guides a utility towards an economical and orderly expansion of the T&D system while assuring adequate and efficient service levels over the depreciative life of the facilities. GECE has an ISO certification for Energy Consultancy services.

GECE Developed Long Term Master plans spanning 10 to 15 years for Distribution system in Urban and Rural centers by:

• Development period/Year wise Spatial Load forecast using Multiple Techniques basedon data availability namely
• Historic Growth rates
• Time series
• Regression techniques
• End use Method
• Land use development plans of urban areas
• Evolvingcriteria forNetwork design considering best Utility practices.
• evelopedAlternate network expansion plans for each period/year to meet projected load and comply with design criteria.
• Evolved Network expansion plans for planning period and rank them

The Notable Projects successfully Executed are:
1. WB funded Long term capital investment Plan for 15 years up to year 2025for DHBVN, an Indian Utility, which supplies power to Gurugram and Faridabad Districts, thefastest growing suburbs of New Delhi, Capital ofIndia.
2. WB funded Rehabilitation and upgrading of Distribution network in Addis Ababa, DireDawa, Nazreth, Bahir Dar,Awassa, Jimma, Mekele and Dessie in Ethiopia.
3. DFID FundedMaster Plan for 3 districts in Madhya Pradesh, a state of India.
4. SECO funded Grid Intensification Project for 80 Rural towns in Upper East andUpper West Regions of NEDCO, Ghana.
5. USAID Funded DRUM project of Doddabalapur in Karnataka state and Umreth in Gujarat state, India.